The 20 most
recession-proof towns in Britain
With economic storm clouds gathering on the horizon and whispers of a property
downturn on everyone’s lips, you might not think this is the best time to
buy, unless you really have to. Get the location right, however, and you
should have nothing to worry about – certain areas in Britain are safe
investments (well, as safe as any investment can be), almost regardless of
when or, in most cases, what you buy.
“Fundamentally, the security of the housing market comes down to various
things – the health of the local economy, the local employment market and
other factors, such as the quality of the workforce,” says Liam Bailey, head
of research at the estate agency Knight Frank. “If interest rates were to
double, unemployment become an issue and a full-scale recession occur,
everywhere would see price falls – but certain places would fall less and be
safer.”
So, where are these places – and why are they such a good investment? In
exclusive research for The Sunday Times, Knight Frank has pinpointed the top
20 fail-safe investment towns in Britain, taking into account factors such
as the affordability of housing, wages and unemployment in the area,
population growth and how qualified the locals are. It makes for surprising
reading: alongside predictable favour-ites such as England’s two oldest
university cities, there are some less expected, and cheaper, alternatives.
Cambridge, which heads the list, ticks all the boxes. It gets top marks for
wages, employment growth and the qualifications of its workforce. Add in the
bonuses of a historic city, plenty of employment at the university,
Adden-brooke’s hospital and the various science and technology parks that
have sprung up on the outskirts of the city, as well as restrictive planning
laws, and the outlook looks good – regardless of the credit crunch.
“Because there is a limited supply of good-quality property, someone wanting
to live in the city centre or close by will pay a high price,” says Richard
Hatch, a partner in the local office of the estate agency Carter Jonas.
“Some people have been waiting for the right house to come along for years,
so whether there’s a recession or not, they will jump at the opportunity to
buy.” Admittedly, affordability is not so great – prices rose by 49% between
2002 and the end of 2007, so a Victorian terraced house near the city centre
could set you back anything between £600,000 and £1m – but with plenty of
London commuters earning good wages, easy transport links and pretty
countryside nearby, Cambridge looks set to remain a strong investment.
York, number two on the list, has many of the same things going for it: an
attractive, historic town centre, good links to London (roughly two hours by
train) and a relatively small supply of housing stock in heart of the city.
Added to that is the ease with which you can reach other nearby towns and
cities where people might like to work, but not necessarily live. “In York,
it is the proximity of Leeds as an outside centre that underpins jobs,”
Bailey explains. In the same way, prices in Bath, at number nine on the
list, are boosted by the ease of the commute to Bristol, Swindon or London.
York also makes a good rental investment, as Andrew and Sara Jackson
discovered when they bought a two-bedroom flat in the city centre six years
ago. “It’s proved an amazing investment – it’s never been unlet,” says Sara,
40, a teacher at an independent girls’ boarding school. The couple, who have
five-year-old triplets, have just bought a second property in York: a
four-bedroom, Grade II-listed house just opposite the Minster for £422,000,
which they plan to let out until Andrew, 43, an army officer, retires.
The city offers another bonus: good schooling. “York has some of the best
state and private schools in the country,” says Edward Waterson, head of
Carter Jonas’s York office. “We’ve had people moving to York from other
parts of the country specifically for education,” The quality of education
is also a plus point for Oxford, number three on the list, according to
Damian Gray, head of Knight Frank’s office in the city. “The best schools
are concentrated quite close in Oxford, and there is only a finite number of
houses,” he says. “If you’re changing your life to put your children through
school, you have to have one of these houses.”
Such properties are not cheap – a period family house on one of the best
streets in central north Oxford will cost between £1.25m and £4m – but
people are falling over themselves to get at them. “Even though everyone
would have it that times are bad, if you don’t step forward, you won’t see a
house like that again,” Gray says. A diverse market, from academics to
investment property for students, means Oxford is “fairly bombproof”, he
adds.
While historic centres and period properties hold their value, cities don’t
have to be ancient to be a good place to buy. With its concrete monoliths,
well-ordered suburbs and sterile walk-ways, Milton Keynes, which last year
celebrated its 40th anniversary, has little in common with the medieval
glory of York, for example. Yet it has made it into fourth place thanks to
its well-planned infrastructure, excellent transport links (it is 40 minutes
by train to Euston) and the ease of access to attractive countryside.
“People want to come here,” says Mark Johnson, head of sales in Knight Frank’s
Milton Keynes office. “Everything you need you can walk to, and, although
they’re putting in flats in the city centre, there aren’t enough to feed
demand.” Prices, at an average of £239,834, are reasonable: a two-bed flat
with a private roof terrace within walking distance of the station costs
between £200,000 and £300,000. And while Milton Keynes is not a dormitory
town full of London commuters, it might soon be, Johnson says. It’s a
similar story in Telford, Shropshire (number 18), another new town. Average
property prices there are just £175,622.
Ease of commuting is an important factor for all top 20 towns.Guildford, in
Surrey (number five), is a prime location for those who leave London in
search of a better quality of life, but continue to work in the capital.
“For those wanting a slightly easier family life, this is an obvious choice
without cutting all ties to London,” says Tim Harriss, a partner in Knight
Frank’s Guildford office, who estimates that 70% of his purchasers travel
daily to the capital. Again, the good schools attract families and, while
property prices are high – a detached family house costs between £800,000
and £2m – young singletons are moving there, attracted by new development
around the station, where one-bed flats go for about £150,000.
That range of prices is behind the appeal of other places on the list, such
asBrighton, in East Sussex (ranked 13). Nick Cropp, 27, bought a two-bed
flat in a terraced period house in the city for £215,000. He works for Plain
Lazy, a clothing company based in nearby Lewes, but the properties there did
not suit his requirements.
“Because it’s bigger, Brighton has a variety of property, so you can choose
where to step onto the ladder,” he says. “I would like to live in Lewes –
but when I’m 32, with kids on the way. It’s mostly big old family houses
there.”
Although most of the places on the list are expensive, Telford and Milton
Keynes are not the only cheaper areas where first-time buyers can still
benefit from good wages, a high employment rate and population growth.
Ports-mouth, in Hampshire (number 16), and Warrington, in Cheshire (number
20), both have strong economies but relatively low house prices: £171,131
and £174,757 respectively, making them the cheapest on the list.
It is not only about jobs, however. Indeed, some places, such asWorthing, in
West Sussex (number 11), Bourne-mouth, in Dorset (number 15), and, to some
extent, Norwich, in Norfolk (number 19), owe their positions to their
popularity as retirement destinations. “People are moving into the area
because they’re coming up for retirement,” confirms Tim Stephens, director
of the Norwich office of Humberts. “They don’t need to be within an hour and
20 minutes of London, so they sell up in the capital, put some cash in the
bank and move here.”
The flats in the centre of Milton Keynes are a future ghetto as everyone who lives there knows. This once attractive part of North Bucks has now been destroyed by urban sprawl. The only choice is to escape to the attractive countryside and villages outside of the Milton Keynes area.
john, milton keynes,
Having looked back at this article how things change so quickly..all these places are now dropping fast and furious and Edinburgh is also dropping.....this recession will show no mercy to man or beast and here comes unemployment..tighten your belts this is going to be uncomfortable for many..
geoff, cheshire, uk
There is a new link to London, Kings Cross from Lincoln coming soon 2009. It will take 1 hour and 30 mins. That will help with the commuters who have found a place to live in Lincoln. House prices are alot cheaper than London & it would be more profitable to buy a place in Lincoln & then commute.
Rebecca Merritt, Lincoln, UK
For all fellow Scots, read the list, its not all about England, Edinburgh is rated 7th best place to invest in.
B WILSON, Edinburgh,
RE: Aberdeen. It may be bucking the trend now but prices there have only shot up in the past 5 years or so. It has lagged behind the South for a number of years so I guess that the bust will also lag P.S. Once the oil has gone you can have your independance, ok?
Chris, Malvern, England
Please, GOD, shut up about trying to make money out of BLOODY PROPERTY. Does this country do anything any more other than sell houses and discuss prices smugly at dinner parties? I just want to bang together the heads of all the talentless berks whose lives I am subsidising by doing real work (engineering).
This country is a joke.
Sarah James, London,
Agree with the Aberdonian. I can't believe your article has completely omitted Scotland.
What about Edinburgh for a safe town?
1.Massive employment, a booming growth in population expected to outstrip the rest of the UK (the new head of city development is attempting to unlock the greenbelt for development).
2.We also have one of the fastest growing airports in the UK and the global headquarters of The Royal Bank Of Scotland - and soon HBOS.
3.An ₤850m infrastructure investment (tram scheme) is underway.
4.Qulaity of the housing stock is exceptional with an abundance of period property.
How could you miss it ! The feeling up here is that our market wears belt and braces.
John Anderson, Edinburgh, Scotland
Scotland is not part of London so stop lumping it in with it!! not everyone lives in the M25 so stop calling it "Britain". Scotland is bucking the trend by have no signs ofa slump with bouyant sales. ask any survey company. Not one word of Wales or Scotland or Northern Ireland in this whole report. very shoddy work. But hey, at least they didnt mention 1966 world cup.
LB, Aberdeen, Scotland
To my Knowledge, these flats in 'The HUB' Central Milton Keynes are not all selling as quickly as anticipated. I find myself back on the first time buyers market and a 1 bed place is at least 130K. I work in London on good wage and would still find this difficult to afford. Shared ownerships have huge premiums, which was supposed to be regulated when shared ownserships first started.
Dawn (Milton Keynes)
Dawn, Milton Keynes,
Milton Keynes -
If there is such a shortage of flats in the centre why are they now worth less than they were bought new for a year ago.
Always beware property price predictions made by estate agents!
Mike
Mike, Milton Keynes, Bucks
This should read 'the 20 best places to buy in England'
Scotland
CMF, Scotland,
Norwich is already saturated with BLT's and prices are already dropping. Over development of Riverside apartments which the locals cannot afford will turn Norwich into a ghost city once the recession gets under way. Log on to Savills!. Pages and pages of property which they cannot shift!
sophie, london,
anywhere in scotland is recession proof with Brown sending billions of pounds up the road to keep the scots happy!
Richard de Gerber, Kingston upon Thames, UK
Hasn't anyone heard of the West Country? If I was preparing to move anywhere then Devon or Cornwall would be top of my 'wants' list.Lower salary levels?Would not worry me!
PAUL THORNE, Gothenburg, SWEDEN
Edinburgh is in Scotland, the last time I looked. Read the list.
PC, London,
Surely you mean the 20 most recession proof cities in ENGLAND not Britain as the headline states.
Dorothy, Glasgow, Scotland
Dream on Dave
Rob, London,
Norwich is No. 19 on the list.
My victorian terrace in the golden triangle in Norwich will be for sale by owner in April. I have owned this house for 20 years and if I were not permanently in the USA I would not sell because Norwich is great and so are the people. My home is within walking distance to Waitrose in the country and walking distance to the city (I am 66) ....
lyn, santa barbara, california usa
I heard Montrose , Scotland was top of the list?
Is this correct?
david, Montrose, Tayside
Swindon is number 17 on the list of 20 but it doesn't say why and I would really like to know why!
Also ithe article doesn't mention that in York (no. 2 on the list) the Heslington East extension to the University means it will double in size over the next 10 years - loads more students and employment! Maybe York should be at the top of the list................hang on, let me buy somewhere first before the rush...............!
Alison, Swindon, Wiltshire
'Estate agents say please buy our houses' shock. If you want to buy a house, buy it to live in , then you won't need toconstantly consult articles like this to convince yourself you have made the right decision. as for the couple buying houses in york, i hope the owners live there as well, so they can go and put the sandbags out when the ouse floods again...well actually i don't , they sound way too smug.
Neil, Brighton, East Sussex
Buy now, or whenever, it really doesn't make that much of a difference because unless you have two+ properties, the value of your home is always relative to the value of the next home you hope to buy. Unless you are moving from an area which has had a significant drop in prices to an area where prices are bull, it makes no difference to you at all.
A second house is probably an investment and therefore you would wish to see the investment rise. However, any other home owner should actually hope for a fall in house prices to make their next home more affordable.
People should also take more notices of the articles they think they are reading. House prices aren't falling it is the average rise in prices which is falling. Note how the land registry reported a fall in the average house price rise from 9.3% to 8.7%.
As for storing your money in cash and believing that you will make 6.75%, you are joking. Less tax and inflation, you would be lucky to make 3% which is far, from 8.7%
Calvin Bailey, London,
Silly to advise anyone to buy any property anywhere at the moment. Me smells vested interests here!
The market is in freefall now and who knows when it'll stop.
WHY BUY NOW when it'll be cheaper next year everywhere and you'll have gained 6.75% on your cash?
Don't, please don't try catch the proverbial
'falling sword.'
george, aylesbury,
With the A3 Hindhead Tunnel scheduled to open in 2011, thus shortening journey times from London to Portsmouth by about half an hour, it's not surprising estate agents see a goldmine here both in Portsmouth itself and the commuter town of Petersfield. Every 2-bit developer will be scrambling to get property in Portsmouth in the next few years.
John Trueman, Midhurst, West Sussex
I lived in Brighton during the last house crash, and it bombed along with other towns. Oh, but then it's different this time, according to the estate agents. Always is.
Perhaps this top 20 is a list where the Knight Frank types like to buy their "country" retreats.
David, Guildford,
Is all this one-upmanship on fellow citizens and "keeping up with the Jones'" really necessary?
Aren't you all sick of it?
Who cares how much these houses and flats cost in this over-crowded, selfish and direspectful society that was engineered under Thatcher and still prevails today. In this instant gratification culture that has manifested itself the price of everything is known but the value of nothing.
Dave, Ports-mouth,
Errrr!!!! Did someone forget to mention Ashford in Kent. If you analyse house prices in south-east England you'll notice that at the town level prices are about 90% tied to commuting times to London. Don't believe me? Take a look at the land registry data and compare to the network rail timetable for rush hour trains.
Ashford's current train times to London are 1 hour 15 minutes. From end 2009, the commute time drops to 36 minutes. And the trains are built by Hitachi!!! This time reduction on its own - ceteris paribus - will see a 15-20% rise in prices.
Plus single-sex grammar schools. Real countryside. Real ale. Real people. In a great county.
David Burdon, Ashford, UK
What happens if prices in London fall by even half the amount they did during the last crash (30% in nominal terms). The implication in the story is largely that these towns are secure as they are attractive to people in London who are being priced out of London e.g. Brighton.
BUT if London falls why not then look in London?
I agree that there are local attractions and life style issues that will provide a buffer, but the main assumption that they are for Londoners looking for somewhere cheap is not the pillar implied...
the current credit crunch sums it up...all these high paid people somehow forgot the oldest pattern in asset markets...if one cannot sell their illiquid assets (the equivalent being can now buy a house in London as it has fallen in price) they sell their liquid ones (the equivalent being they do not have to buy in these other areas outside London as London prices have fallen) so that market falls as well.
Raj, London,
Is there a list of the 20 places somewhere? I can't find it.
Phil, London,
Typical London-centric viewpoint. The article should be retitled top 20 places to buy in little England.
There's not one location in Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland despite the fact that, by popular concensus, Scotland is most insulated against the effects of a housing recession.
Jodie, Newcastle,
I think you will find that St Andrews in North East Fife-"the home of golf" is the only city in the United Kingdom that has not experienced a fall in prices since the second world war.
It ticks allthe boxes ,and more of Cambridge etc!!!!!!!
Thanks also to Kate and Prince William.
Colin Renwick, Oslo, Norway
Dont agree with the selection! If you really want to protect yourself then buy in Burnley or Nelson where even an unlikely 20% drop in prices would only leave you nursing losses equal to only a more than likely less than 10% drop in most of the areas shown. The career proospects are fantastic at all levels of ability and interest; the countryside is stunning and unbeatable in its beauty; you're never more than an hour from the sea; there are 2 of the Country's greatest cities with all their attendant attraction within an hour's travel; there are a number of major towns and smaller cities within an hour max travel; and of course there are also the many major sporting attractions also within an hour's travel. Does it for them as knows!
David, Burnley/Nelson border, Lancs, UK
the title of this article should be '20 best places to buy a property buy outside london.'
Then another article to write about '20best places to buy in London'
anthony wong, london, uk